Rest-of-year forecast
Monte Carlo over the 30 complete weeks remaining in 2026, drawn from the last 52 complete weeks of spend (as of 2026-05-28).
Distribution of remaining 2026 spend
Projected rest-of-year by category
The Spent YTD column shows what you've already spent this calendar year. Pin an annual commitment on any row (e.g. "$5k for the year") and the rest-of-year drops to annual − YTD — what's left of your commitment. Pinned categories are excluded from the bootstrap; everything else uses YTD pace × weeks remaining (or falls back to T12 prorated when the year is too young to have a stable pace). Lumpy categories always use T12 prorated.
| Category | Spent YTD | Projected RoY | Source | Set annual $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rent | $14,250.00 | $21,375.00 | YTD pace | |
| travel PINNED | — | $6,000.00 | annual − YTD | |
| restaurants | $3,865.61 | $5,798.42 | YTD pace | |
| groceries | $3,747.27 | $5,620.90 | YTD pace | |
| shopping | $3,347.98 | $5,021.97 | YTD pace | |
| household_goods | $2,625.37 | $3,938.06 | YTD pace | |
| education | $1,724.80 | $2,587.20 | YTD pace | |
| taxes LUMPY | — | $2,451.92 | T12 prorated | |
| utilities | $1,483.50 | $2,225.25 | YTD pace | |
| transportation | $1,481.94 | $2,222.91 | YTD pace | |
| charity PINNED | — | $1,800.00 | annual − YTD | |
| insurance LUMPY | $1,380.00 | $1,592.31 | T12 prorated | |
| coffee | $694.59 | $1,041.88 | YTD pace | |
| uncategorized | $659.45 | $989.18 | YTD pace | |
| personal_care | $432.00 | $648.00 | YTD pace | |
| subscriptions | $343.80 | $515.70 | YTD pace | |
| fitness | $195.00 | $292.50 | YTD pace | |
| entertainment | $181.76 | $272.64 | YTD pace | |
| health | $173.81 | $260.72 | YTD pace | |
| Total | $36,586.88 | $64,654.56 |
How this is computed
10,000 simulated rest-of-2026 totals. Each draw samples 30 weeks with replacement from the trailing 52 weeks of expense totals (combined accounts) and sums them. Lumpy categories (insurance, taxes) contribute $4,044 over the remaining horizon as a deterministic add (annual T12 × 30/52) — they don't bootstrap. User-pinned categories (charity, travel) contribute $7,800 as a deterministic add (annual commitment − YTD already spent, clamped at zero). Their weekly history is excluded from the bootstrap — you know the number, the model defers to you. P10 / P50 / P90 are percentile boundaries of the simulated totals.
Weekly resampling sits between monthly (only 12 samples — too noisy) and daily (~365 samples but high autocorrelation makes effective sample size much smaller). Trade-off: monthly bills land in ~30/4.33 of the 30 sampled weeks on average — right expected count, with phase noise that shrinks proportionally as the horizon grows.